Zakat-Based Economic Model

If we consider Zakat as the main "tax" of the system, as it was during the time of Prophet Muhammad (peace be upon him), two fundamental mechanisms emerge to cover modern state expenditures. In this analysis, it is important to remember that Zakat is a "designated fund" (money whose spending is predetermined). In this case, the state budget is divided into two main channels: 1. Expenses to be Covered by the Zakat Fund (Social Security). The categories mentioned in verse 60 of Surah At-Tawbah fall under the headings of "Social Security" and "Social Transfers" in modern public finance. * Pension Payments: During the time of the Prophet, those who were old or incapacitated and lacked sufficient savings were directly supported from the state treasury (Bayt al-Mal). * Analysis: If the Zakat-tax system were applied today, pension payments would be covered from this fund not as a "premium," but as a "right to a decent life." Especially, supplementing low pension payments to the minimum subsistence level would be a direct responsibility of the "poor and needy" category mentioned in the verse. * Unemployment and Social Assistance: All expenses of those who lost their jobs or fell into debt (Gârimîn) were covered from this fund, preventing economic collapse. 2. Expenses to be Covered by the General Budget (Infrastructure and Defense): During the time of Prophet Muhammad, expenses for roads, bridges (public works), and defense were covered not only by zakat but also by general public revenues such as "Fey" and "Ganimet." The use of zakat in these areas has been discussed through the category of "Fi Sebîlillâh" (in the way of Allah/for the public good). * Roads, Bridges, and Infrastructure: In Islamic law, "common goods" (water, pasture, fire) and public benefit are fundamental. During the Prophet's time, income other than zakat or the direct labor of the people (imece) were used for such services. * Analysis: In the modern world, while zakat-taxes are used to alleviate poverty, additional fees (motor vehicle tax, usage fees, etc.) are introduced for services such as roads and bridges, based on a "Service Tax" or "User Pays" logic. * Defense Industry Expenditures: The concept of "Fi Sabilillah" (in the way of Allah) in the verse is directly equated with military and defense expenditures in classical Islamic jurisprudence. * Analysis: Ensuring national security, protecting borders, and developing defense technologies can be financed from zakat funds. However, the Prophet encouraged the wealthy to make "extra infaq" (voluntary large donations) to equip the army (e.g., the Tabuk Expedition). Today's equivalent could be "Defense Bonds" issued by the state for strategic projects or private security shares levied on wealth.

Conclusion of the Analysis: When we consider zakat as a "single tax," the state budget takes on a human-centered structure. * The main source for defense and poverty alleviation becomes "Zakat-Tax" (Wealth Tax). * For luxury infrastructure investments (bridges, roads, etc.), the state turns to fees collected directly from those who use the service or to foreign trade taxes. The biggest difference in this system is that the state cannot use the tax (VAT) on the poor's bread to build roads. Instead, it pays for the road from those who use it, and provides the poor with bread from the rich's wealth (Zakat). If we apply the Zakat-tax model from the time of Prophet Muhammad (peace be upon him) to the present day, we can make the following projections regarding the speed and process of improvement in income inequality (Gini Coefficient): 1. Short-Term Effect (1-3 Years): "Shock Improvement" In the first years of the system, the lowest income bracket is rapidly lifted. * Elimination of the Poverty Line: Because Zakat-tax is directly channeled to "those in need," the income of the bottom 20% of society instantly reaches minimum living standards. * Stimulation of Consumption: The money received by the lower income group directly returns to the market (basic food, clothing). This creates a "multiplier effect" in the economy, stimulating local trade. * Relief from Debt Burden: Thanks to the "Gârimîn" (debtors) clause, the financial shackles of the middle and lower classes, who are trapped in a debt interest spiral, are broken.

2. Medium-Term Impact (3-10 Years): "Distribution of Wealth" Since Zakat-tax targets not only income but also idle wealth (cash, gold, unused land) on the back burner, the capital structure begins to change. * Encouraging Investment: A 2.5% (or a predetermined rate) annual tax on idle money encourages capital owners to invest, create jobs, or engage in trade to prevent their money from dwindling. * Equal Opportunities: By funding education and healthcare expenses under the Fi Sabillah (In the Way of Allah) program, the "educational gap" between children from poor families and children from wealthy families begins to close. This accelerates social mobility (upward mobility). 3. Long-Term Impact (10+ Years): "Sustainable Middle-Class Society" It is a historical fact that during the time of Caliph Umar (the period when the Prophet's system bore fruit), there were no people to whom Zakat could be given. The long-term result of this model is **"The End of Class Polarization"**. * Decrease in Gini Coefficient: The Gini coefficient, currently around 0.40 in Turkey and globally (unfair), could be projected to fall below even Scandinavian countries (to the 0.20-0.25 range) with this model. * End of Permanent Poverty: The system not only feeds the poor; it also empowers debtors by providing them with capital (through the Rikâb and Gârimîn classes), transforming them into producers.

The Biggest Obstacle to This Model: "Informal Economy" During the time of Prophet Muhammad, the success of this system was based on transparency and honesty. For this model to achieve the same momentum today: * All wealth (crypto assets, real estate, foreign accounts) must be digitally recorded and transparent. * A technological guarantee (e.g., Blockchain-based distribution) must be provided to ensure there is no favoritism or nepotism in the distribution of collected funds.

In conclusion: When the Prophet's tax logic (Zakat) is applied, poverty ceases to be a "fate" and becomes a solvable "resource allocation problem" within a short period, such as 10 years. Today, Türkiye's social security system is fundamentally based on a method called "Distribution Principle" (Pay-As-You-Go). This system works on the principle that instead of individuals saving money for their own retirement, the premiums paid by the currently working population directly finance the pensions of current retirees. We can summarize the system's operation and current components under the following headings: 1. Distribution Principle (Pay-As-You-Go) Model: In this model, the Social Security Institution (SGK) does not accumulate the premiums collected from employees and employers in a pool, but immediately uses them to pay the monthly pensions of existing retirees. * Active/Passive Ratio: For the system to function properly, the ratio of the number of employees to the number of retirees (active/passive ratio) must be high. While the ideal ratio is 4 employees to 1 retiree, this ratio is currently lower in Türkiye. * Government Contribution: When premium income is insufficient to cover pension payments, the difference is covered by the government budget (treasury assistance). 2. Fund-Based Supplementary Systems: To reduce the burden on the distribution-based system and increase the welfare of individuals during retirement, systems based on the "Fund Principle" have also been implemented: * Individual Retirement System (BES): This is based on voluntariness. The contributions paid by the individual are invested in investment funds and accumulate during retirement. The government provides a 30% contribution to encourage this system. * Automatic Enrollment (OKS): This is a model where employees are automatically included in the BES through their employers. * Supplementary Retirement System (TES): This model, planned to be implemented by 2026, is a more comprehensive fund system integrated with severance pay, where employees, employers, and the state jointly pay premiums. 3. Method of Calculating Retirement Pensions While pension payments are based on a distribution system, the following criteria are used to determine the amount to be paid: * Update Coefficient: Calculated using a coefficient that takes into account the present value of past premiums paid, annual inflation (CPI), and 30% of the growth rate. * Monthly Linking Rate (ABO): A percentage that varies according to the length of employment. * Earnings Subject to Premiums: Your gross salary reported to the Social Security Institution (SGK) while working is the most fundamental determinant of your retirement pension. In summary, while the main retirement pensions provided by the state are currently covered by the premiums of employees, systems such as BES and TES aim to create additional income for individuals through funds accumulated in their own name.

The most prestigious study evaluating pension systems worldwide based on "efficiency," "sustainability," and "adequacy" is the Mercer CFA Institute Global Pension Index, published annually. According to current data for 2025 and 2026, the Netherlands holds the title of the world's most successful pension system. Iceland and Denmark follow closely behind with similar scores. Here are the key features that make these systems "the best": 1. Netherlands (Overall Leader) The Dutch system is at the top due to both the high basic pension provided by the state and the excellent management of mandatory deductions from employees' salaries by professional funds. * Hybrid Model: Formed by combining both public and private sector funds. * Collective Risk Sharing: Investment risks are not shifted onto individuals; funds are managed collectively, and risks are shared across generations. 2. Iceland (Sustainability Champion) Iceland is particularly the best in the world in terms of "Sustainability" (the system's ability to make payments in the future). 

 * High Savings Rate: The contribution rates paid by employees and employers to the fund are very high, creating a massive pension asset. * Late Retirement: The retirement age system, determined in parallel with the average life expectancy, maintains stability. 3. Denmark (Integrity and Transparency) The Danish system stands out for its transparency and the breadth of the social safety net provided to individuals. * Universal Basic Income: All citizens are guaranteed a certain amount of basic pension. * Mandatory Employer Contribution: Almost every employee is automatically included in a pension fund through their employer. 3 Key Factors That Make Systems Successful The common features of these systems, which receive an "A" rating worldwide, are as follows:

Note: In the 2025-2026 reports, Singapore and Israel also received an "A" rating, placing them among the top-ranked countries. Turkey, however, generally ranks low in this index due to its low "sustainability" score.

When we examine the practices during the time of our Prophet Muhammad (peace be upon him), we see that the distinction between zakat and public finance (tax) was not as sharp as it is today; in fact, they were intertwined. At that time, zakat was not only an individual act of worship but also the state's most fundamental source of revenue and the main mechanism of the social welfare system. From this perspective: 1. Social and Economic Integration: In the Age of Bliss, zakat was collected and distributed by the state (Bayt al-Mal). This made zakat a "religious tax" in the sense we understand it today. *Analysis: If zakat and tax are considered the same thing, the primary purpose of taxes collected by the state would be to address income inequality and support those who cannot meet their basic needs. In other words, tax would become a fund collected not just for building roads/bridges, but directly for "ending poverty." 2. Evaluation Based on Tax Base and Rates: During the Prophet's time, zakat was collected on agricultural products (ushur), livestock, and cash/commercial goods. * Analysis: In today's world, positioning zakat as a "single tax" or "main tax" means that the tax burden falls only on capital and production owners, while salaried employees (if below the nisab amount) are protected by the system. This supports an approach that lightens the tax burden on labor. 3. Limitations in Areas of Use The Quran (Tawbah 60) clearly defines 8 categories to whom zakat should be given. * Analysis: When we combine zakat and taxes, a large portion of the state budget should be in the status of "conditional donation." That is, these collected funds cannot be transferred to the general budget and used for defense or bureaucratic expenditures; they should be spent directly on social assistance, debt relief, and public benefit (sabilillah). 4. Balance Between Voluntariness and Control During the time of the Prophet Muhammad, there were zakat officials (amil), and this was a public duty. However, since the essence of zakat lies in the consciousness of "responsibility to God," tax evasion was seen as a "betrayal of trust." * Analysis: Identifying tax with zakat elevates the citizen's motivation for paying taxes from "obligation" to "a social debt and moral duty." This provides an ethical foundation that reduces audit costs.

Conclusion for Today: If we take the Prophet's practice as a model today, instead of saying "Zakat is already a tax," we conclude that "The tax system should be redesigned according to the spirit and justice of zakat." In this scenario, the state should reduce indirect taxes, especially those on basic necessities (VAT/Special Consumption Tax, etc., which also affect the poor), and center a system (the logic of zakat) that will bring large, idle assets into circulation. Verse 60 of Surah At-Tawbah forms the basis of public finance and the concept of the welfare state in Islamic law. This verse definitively limits where zakat can be spent through eight categories. A detailed analysis of these classes from the perspective of contemporary public finance and social policy is as follows: 1. The Poor and the Destitute: In the classic distinction, the poor are those who struggle to meet their basic needs; the destitute are those who have nothing. 

* Modern Equivalent: Those living below the "minimum subsistence level." * Analysis: This item represents the state's "Social Security and Social Assistance" budget. It includes unemployment benefits, disability benefits, and cash transfers to low-income individuals. The system's primary priority is to ensure that no one in society falls below the poverty line. 2. Tax Collectors (Zakat/Tax Officials): These are the individuals who work for the collection, safeguarding, and distribution of Zakat. * Modern Equivalent: The finance and social services bureaucracy.

* Analysis: The mechanism for tax collection and social welfare distribution covers its own costs from within the system itself. This ensures the sustainability of public administration. 3. Mu'allafa-i Qulub (Those Whose Hearts Are to Be Won): These are groups whose hearts are to be won over to Islam or whose negative attitudes towards the state are to be prevented. * Modern Equivalent: Diplomacy, Soft Power, and Public Relations. * Analysis: This is the budget allocated by the state strategically to maintain social peace, gain allies in the outside world, or create public opinion in favor of the country. 4. Fir-Rikab (Those Who Are to Be Freed): The liberation of people under bondage. * Modern Equivalent: The Fight Against Modern Slavery and Human Rights. * Analysis: Although there is no official slavery today, rescuing victims of human trafficking, freeing those forced into labor, or freeing those under heavy debt/dependence falls under this category. 5. Garimîn (Debtors): Those who are unable to pay their debts, especially those who have gone bankrupt or are burdened with an unjust debt. * Modern Equivalent: Individual Debt Restructuring and Financial Rehabilitation. * Analysis: The state intervenes to rescue its citizens (or businesses) who have fallen into debt due to economic crises or misfortunes. This prevents the system from collapsing and offers an opportunity for an "economic fresh start." 6. Fi Sebîlillâh (Those in the Way of Allah): All kinds of good deeds and jihad that are pleasing to Allah.

* Modern Equivalent: Public Services, Defense, Education, and Health. * Analysis: In a broad sense, it is any activity that benefits the general public (public good). It encompasses a wide range, from national defense expenditures to R&D studies for the advancement of science, and the construction of schools and hospitals. 7. Ibn al-Sebîl (Those Stranded): People in dire straits. Those living under bridges, homeless, etc. * Modern Equivalent: Refugees, Asylum Seekers, and Temporary Settlement Services. * Analysis: Supporting individuals who have been uprooted from their country or home and who, temporarily or permanently, cannot access their basic needs (refugees, disaster victims or those who have suffered, the extremely poor, the homeless). General Assessment from the Perspective of the Prophet Muhammad: The way the Prophet Muhammad applied this verse was that he viewed taxation as a process of "returning a certain portion of wealth to the weakest segments of society." According to this perspective: * Limited Authority: The state cannot arbitrarily spend this "zakat-tax" it collects. The preposition "li" (for) in the verse indicates that the ownership of this money belongs not to the state, but to the classes mentioned. * Rejection of Luxury Spending: Palaces, excessively luxurious bureaucracy, or wasteful expenditures are not covered by Surah At-Tawbah 60. * Dynamic Justice: If a society has a high debt problem (Gharimin), the budget is shifted there; if there is an external threat, it is allocated to defense (Fi Sabilillah). In summary, Surah At-Tawbah 60 is a budget law that, in today's terms, is "transparent, targets a specific audience, and focuses on social justice." Through this practice, the Prophet demonstrated that the primary purpose of finance is not to enrich the state, but to sustain society.

The Scientific Governance Model and the Zakat-based economic model should be understood as complementary models, but as a single, unified model. A system that will absolutely work in the face of difficulties, or in the face of pressure from trusts, powerful lobbies, or combined corporations—that is, against the leading figures of society or the self-serving bloc of power—cannot be proposed. Because responding to the fascist influence of the large and oppressive lobbies of the neoliberal economy with an equally oppressive force, and forcing the system to be implemented, inevitably leads to falling into the same pit. It is erroneous to expect the proposed system to work despite the self-serving insistence of individuals. What is proposed here is a system aimed at ensuring income equality and governance justice. To suppress those who insist with counter-insistence means to inevitably create internal conflict at the slightest weakness in the system or society. The cornerstone of a peaceful society is income equality. What can achieve this is the smoothest possible governance system. Human weaknesses, bribery, and nepotism in hiring decisions mean that societal problems become unsolvable. It means rendering the economic system and the justice system dysfunctional.

Kendisinin kıyısında bir kadın - öykü (e-kitap)

okuma linki : Kendisinin Kıyısında bir Kadın

"Kendisinin kıyısında bir kadın" isimli öykü henüz yazım aşamasındadır. Sizlerin de bu aşamaya tanıklık etmeniz ve dilerseniz fikirlerinizi paylaşabilmeniz için okuma linkini buraya bırakıyorum.

Keyifli okumalar.

 

TOPLUM

Hitler saatleri değiştirdi - Hadi onları geri değiştirelim

Ralph Bosen

10/27/201827 Ekim 2018

Pazar sabahı neredeyse tüm Avrupa'da saatler bir saat geri alınacak. AB'de kışın standart zamanının son dönemi olabilir. Geçmiş olsun, diyor DW'den Ralf Bosen.

https://p.dw.com/p/37GMD

İşaretler bariz: huysuz garsonlar kafelerin önündeki sandalyeleri ve masaları kaldırıyor, komşular düşen yaprakları süpürüyor ve şezlonglarını bodruma kilitliyor. Yine yılın o zamanı. Henüz sonbahar depresyonuyla başa çıkamadık ve kışın başlangıcı yakındır - ve onunla birlikte, zaman değişikliği denen iki yılda bir yapılan, sinir bozucu ritüel. Yaz saati uygulaması biter, kış saati uygulaması başlar. Bu, sabahları bir saat daha fazla uyumak ve daha fazla gün ışığı almak anlamına gelir. Öte yandan güneş bir saat erken batıyor. 

Pazar gününün erken saatlerinde Avrupa'nın neredeyse tamamında saatler değişecek. Ve özellikle Almanlar, en azından biraz çıldıracak. Sabah üçte, bir kez daha ikiye geri döneceğiz. Ve halk bir kez daha tüm bunların mantıklı olup olmadığını tartışacak, bu sefer her zamankinden daha şiddetli ve tartışmalı bir şekilde, çünkü saatleri değiştirmek için zaman dolmuş olabilir. Tüm Avrupa'daki vatandaşlar arasında yürütülen çevrimiçi bir ankete katılanların yüzde 80'inden fazlası ile birlikte Avrupa Komisyonu da durumu böyle görüyor . Ankete katılanların üçte ikisi Almanya'dandı.

Tanınmış sesler kalıcı yaz saati şampiyonu

Brüksel merkezli otorite, 38 yıldır süregelen zaman yolculuğuna son vermek istiyor. Uygulamanın 2019'da şimdiden rafa kaldırılmasını istiyor . Her AB üye ülkesi, kalıcı olarak yaz saatinde mi yoksa standart kış saatinde mi kalacağına karar verecek. Ancak, Avrupa Parlamentosu ve AB üye devletlerinin hala onay vermesi gerektiğinden, bunların hiçbiri henüz resmi değil. 

Ancak zamanın işaretleri açıkça hurdaya çıkarıldığını gösteriyor. Almanya'nın ekonomik işler bakanı Peter Altmaier, kendisini kalıcı yaz saatinin savunucusu olarak konumlandırdı. Muhtemelen Şansölye Angela Merkel tarafından desteklenecek. 

Avrupa Komisyonu başkanı Jean-Claude Juncker, son AB vatandaşları anketinin ardından, insanların istediği buysa, saatlerin değiştirilebileceğini söyledi - iş dostu Hür Demokratlar (FDP) başkanı tarafından memnuniyetle karşılanan bir açıklama Bunun "iyi haber" olduğunu söyleyen Christian Lindner, çünkü oldukça basit bir şekilde "sinir bozucuydu." 

DW's Ralf Bosen

Yani Pazar günkü saat değişikliği türünün son örneği olabilir. Bu iyi bir şey. Çünkü saatlerin kalıcı olarak kurcalanması ... hiçbir şeye yol açmadı! Enerji tasarrufunun iddia edilen avantajları? Bilimsel çalışmalara göre asla gerçekleşmedi.

Bunun yerine, insan vücudu büyük miktarda stresle baş etmek zorundadır: mini jet gecikmesinin bir sonucu olarak hormon üretimi, metabolizma ve beyin aktivitesi geçici olarak düzensizdir. Bu, özellikle düzenli olarak vardiyalı çalışanlar veya çok erken kalkmak zorunda olanlar için zehirlidir.

Devamını oku: Zaman değişikliği ve hoşnutsuzlukları

Anti-sosyal bir topluma karşı

Ancak uzmanlar, sağlıklı bir insanın bu tür değişikliklerle üç gün içinde başa çıkabileceğini iddia ediyor. Yani sağlıklı olanlar iyi olacak, peki ya hasta insanlar? Peki ya kendilerine ait biyoritimleri olan yaşlı insanlar veya yeni yürümeye başlayan çocukları olan ebeveynler? Nasıl hissettikleri önemli değil mi? Durum böyle olmamalı. Yalnızca sağlıklı ve fiziksel olarak güçlü üyelerine yönelen bir toplum, soğuk ve anti-sosyal olarak adlandırılmalıdır.

Bundan yararlananlar, zaman zaman şüpheli olan ve saatlerin değiştirilmesi konusunda pek çok basmakalıp tavsiyeler veren basılı dergiler ve TV yayınları derleyenlerdi. İşte size küçük bir seçki: Kış yaklaşırken öğlen saatlerinden sonra kahve içmekten kaçınmalısınız, akşamları yürüyüşe çıkmalı, stresten uzak durmalı, konsantrasyonunuzu artırmak için bol meyve ve kuruyemiş yemelisiniz vs. tüm yıl boyunca geçerlidir.

Elbette saatlerin değişmesiyle ilgili sıkıntılar lüks bir sorun olarak görülebilir. Dünyanın dört bir yanındaki doğal afetler, savaşlar ve kitlesel açlık karşısında Almanya'nın ufacık bir saatlik zaman farkına kızmaktan daha iyi bir işi olup olmadığını sormak meşrudur. Kabul edildi: bu gerekli değil. Ancak bu, gerçek dünya etkileri olan pratik bir sorundur.

Hitler savaş çabalarına yardımcı olmak için saatleri değiştirdi

Geçmişe bir göz atmak,  doğru kararı vermemize yardımcı olabilir. Gün ışığından yararlanma saati fikri ilk olarak son Alman imparatoru Wilhelm II tarafından uygulandı. Birinci Dünya Savaşı'nın kanlı siper savaşlarında milyonlarca askerin katledilmesi ve Alman silah fabrikalarının yakıt sıkıntısı çekmesiyle 30 Nisan 1916'da saatleri yaz saatine aldı. savaşı sürdürmek için. Aynı yıl Almanya'nın rakipleri İngiltere ve Fransa da aynı şeyi yaptı. Ancak, çağdaşları arasında zaten popüler olmayan yaz saati, 1919'da yeniden kaldırıldı.

1940'ta, Adolf Hitler yönetimindeki Naziler tarafından yaz saati yeniden getirildi - 1916'dakiyle aynı nedenle. Diktatör kardeşleri İtalya'dan Benito Mussolini ve İspanya'dan Francisco Franco, ülkelerinin saatlerini takip ettiler ve Naziler, Avrupa'nın çoğunu değişmeye zorladı. ilave olarak. 1949, bu deneyin sonunu gördü. 1980'de, ikinci petrol krizi sırasında, o zamanlar bölünmüş olan Almanya'nın her iki bölgesinde de yaz saatlerinin değiştirilmesi yeniden canlandırıldı. 1996'dan bu yana, tüm AB üye ülkelerinde yaz saati uygulaması uygulanmaktadır.

Kısacası: iki dünya savaşından sorumlu, askeri operasyonlarını kolaylaştırmak için saatleri kurcalayan, bilgisiz bir imparator ve büyüklük sanrılarına sahip bir diktatör. Sadece bu nedenle söylüyorum: saatlerin değişmesi sona erebilir. Güle güle kış zamanı - ve hiçbir şey için teşekkürler!

Original Link of DW

https://www.dw.com/en/opinion-hitler-changed-the-clocks-lets-change-them-back/a-46060185

* I have copied this webpage translated into Turkish because I don't know how to share in translated language.

Spectographic Notation

 

What are the benefits of using notation as a frequency?

Sound frequency or audible frequency is a periodic vibration that can be heard by the average human. The unit of frequency is hertz (Hz). The human ear hears sounds in the range of 20 Hz to 20,000 Hz. And of course, in order for the sound to be heard, an atmospheric environment where sound waves can travel is required.

The biggest benefit of expressing notation in terms of frequency (spectogram) is that there is no need for instrument identification. Composition can be performed with any instrument (object or electronic device) from which the relevant frequency can be obtained. The biggest benefit of this situation is that it does not direct the musician(s) to a conditioned instrument. In terms of the composer, it is not limited to full/half/quarter tones. Any frequency can be expressed without the need for the corresponding TET calculation. This frequency will correspond to the sound of which instrument can produce, which may allow musicians to receive wider training. From this point of view, it will be seen that any object has the opportunity to become an instrument. Those who want to use electronic devices and modulators instead of natural instruments (objects) will be more comfortable. It is necessary to be blind not to foresee that the music of the future will be based on electronic devices. Even today, electronic devices have started to be used intensively in contemporary works. Although I do not agree with its naming, it is called New Music.

* The introductory part of the Famine - I study can be seen in the attached photo.

** Now, let's have a little discussion on it. The spectrogram output we see here is the result. In other words, the piece is the state after it is performed. Alright. How can the work be written with the spectrogram technique in the first place? As can be seen in the output, frequency ranges are available. Afterwards, it is seen that there are main voices and sub voices. The same method can be used easily when writing on paper. Humming (blurred abstract) sounds called hum can be expressed with a light scribble. Thus, the sounds of an entire orchestra are suitable to be described in a single spectrogram expression. Let's ask this way. Is it polyphonic music when 100 violins play the same sound? Of course not. It is loud but not polyphonic. To be polyphonic, 100 violins must play different movements in groups. Let's say they are performing 5 different movements in groups of 20. It is quite comfortable to express these 5 different sounds in a single spectrogram notation. (It wouldn't make much sense for them to use the same frequencies. If there are overlapping frequencies, which in my opinion is a bad composition design; then a second line of spectrogram notation can be opened.) Because when viewed from a little distance, it will be noticed that the spectrogram is in lines. Each line will represent a separate movement. This may provide the composer with the opportunity to write (express) and easily see and evaluate what he/she expresses as a whole. Therefore, using spectrogram notation is the notation method of the future in my opinion. However, what I'm discussing here is not the result. It should be considered as a suggestion.

Possible Catastrophic Possibilities

On the other hand, I don't think it's wrong to make a claim.

I would like to start by explaining that the functioning of the economy is related to the increase in the world population. When economies are in good shape, per capita income increases. Even if the incomes of the workers are less than those of the rich or well-educated, the real population growth is experienced in the middle income and lower groups. Because it is the middle and lower-income classes that make up the majority of the world's population. When the economy is good, they can easily find a job and have an opportunity to start a family. However, when the economy deteriorates, it is the middle and lower-income classes that are most affected. They find it difficult to find a job, their income opportunities narrow with the increase in population. When the population is dense, it is easier to find workers who will accept to work cheaper.

On the other hand, the increase in the world population causes more use of natural resources and an increase in the amount of waste. One of the most fundamental problems we experience today is climate problems due to the increasing amount of pollution and fossil gases. Even if it is possible to solve the fossil gas problem with renewable energy, renewing the energy and production produced with fossil resources is an issue that requires investment costs. When the investment cost increases, every technology change means that the costs increase; resulting in higher prices for products and services. When the world-wide surplus of the population occurs as the difficulty of finding a job and the decreasing amount of income; It does not happen as the demand increases due to the increasing prices of energy and services produced by renewable energy investments. For example, the transition from fossil fuel vehicles to electric and green hydrogen vehicles is slow.

When all the data is collected, we encounter three basic problems. One is the increasing world population and its consequences on nature, which is the destruction of more natural areas to build and feed the houses that the growing population needs; The other consequence is that more waste pollutes the planet. The other main problem is renewable technologies and the rising product and service prices as a result of the investment costs of these technologies. Non-renewal of technologies emerges as dense fossil waste. The third main problem is declining wages and rising unemployment.

When these problems are evaluated together; makes it possible for me to express a claim that I originally made. People living under difficult conditions do not marry, do not start a family and do not want to have children. I think that until the world population comes to a balance, the economic problems will not improve and will continue to get worse. However, I calculate that renewable investments will not be made at a rate that will positively affect the climate.

There is only one detail left that I need to express.

There are an average of 90 generations alive today. Those born each year make up a generation. If we calculate these generations at decade intervals, we can say that 9 generations are alive. Since the current world is 7.8 billion people; if conditions continue to adversely affect birth rates for 50 years; In 2071, the world population may decline to an average of 5.5 to 6.5 billion people. It seems possible that the planet will reach ~+5°C in the 2070s, unless the increasing amount of waste cleaning is done from seas and lands for 50 years and renewable energy investments are not made at a level that will affect the climate positively. Under these conditions, the possibility of the planet becoming uninhabitable is unfortunately very likely. It is very possible that it has come to a planet where species have disappeared, sea creatures have died, agriculture has become almost impossible, clean water is scarce, and breathing air can only be bought with money.

Remember this.  It has been glaciers, trees, insects and phytoplankton that have stabilized the climate for hundreds of millions of years.  They are also the ones who make life possible.

Stages of Transition from Neoliberalism to Scientific Governance Model

 Moving from the neoliberal state model, which has been in practice since the 1970s, to another model cannot be expected to be completely painless. Every change carries its own difficulties. Even though the new system is perfect compared to the old one, there are some difficulties due to human habits.

While explaining the Scientific Governance Model, I started with Weber's understanding of bureaucracy and the example of Belgium. The first step of the transition phase that I will propose for the transition to SGM will again be the Weber bureaucracy. Because at a time when the political system is actively in office, it is necessary to expect that politicians will do their best to prevent the transition to the SGM. It is necessary to reckon with its privileges, its posh location, its super-luxury vehicles, its magnificent buildings, its power to change society with one decision, the power to manage the wealth of a country's taxes, and of course the resilience of anyone who has to lose their job.

While the Weber bureaucracy is in operation, universities create their own SGM modeling programs. However, since they will need to fully understand the system to be passed through, they all need to understand the situation and their new positions mentally and adapt. There may be those who do not grasp this position well and think that one of them will manage everything, or there may be those who sneakily pursue this aim. Humans are rational by nature, but whispers from outside and high bribery supplies can cause this essence to be misdirected. For these reasons, I think that it may be necessary to use psychological counseling service actively and necessarily in a planned manner during this transition period. Otherwise, it would be an unnecessary step to test the academics and professors of each university on their scientific competencies. However, it is important to apply KPIs regularly and crosswise when explaining the SGM model. By cross I mean different universities apply each other and each time this order changes randomly.

SGM models have two main structures. The first structure is the one that is open to development and for testing purposes within the relevant university. The other structure consists of intercollegiate models. The aim here is to test the efficiency of the results obtained after entering the data of the subjects to be studied and to put them into practice as an inter-university model when the most suitable model is developed. Of course, it is necessary to foresee that the first models can be reached after many meetings and long-term studies. For these reasons, it can be expected that it will take several years to 10 years to move from the Weber bureaucracy to the SGM model. It is necessary to eliminate the possibility that a rapid transition with unprepared models can cause serious collapses and chaos.

The challenge here is the long-running scientific debates in the university environment that prevent too quick decision making. Although science works with tests and evidence, when the subject is society; It is the society itself that will be tested, which is quite risky. Therefore, it requires models to be tested virtually after data has been processed. This, on the other hand, increases the possibility that the debates will take a long time, as it will cause differences in scientific opinion.

Internal assignments will need to be made after the models for each department are ready. This detail should not be forgotten. Individuals will not make decisions. The system itself, the models themselves, will decide how the state will operate. (It does not mean AI governance model control whole system. Humans will do the active implementation. However AI based models creates the solutions and humans discusses if those solutions are accurate and how/when/sequences of steps to be used in implementation.) Here, the role of the university should be developed in such a way that the models can be most scientifically accurate. It is important that the malfunctions that may occur after the model is put into practice are foreseeable. Thus, while the model number X is implemented, the efficiency of the operation can be analyzed and the design of the next model can be started.

Let me try to exemplify a little. This is what is expected when the data that will flow from society, economy, banks, liquidity in emission, companies' income, taxes, geography, city plans, roads, dams, running waters, atmosphere and every other area are transferred to the SGM model. In the light of all these data, what does the country need for investment, what are the social problems and in which subjects, can the citizens meet their needs, in which details are the class differences concentrated, etc. reports should be obtained. According to these reports, SGM should give algorithmic recommendations for each problem. Like what? I have a headache -> Go to the doctor -> The doctor examines it -> If he does not see a very serious problem that may cause headache, he writes the appropriate pain medication. -> If he is worried about any serious problem he will request tests like...... Algorithmic thinking is a construct of processes such as if, and, or, if. The SGM system will also be expected to analyze all data and produce algorithmic recommendations for related fields.

Algorithmic recommendations should be created separately for each field, but by evaluating the total data. Thus, if there is a need for a change in the field of law; this change will be rational. I think it is understood that there will be a change that will be made as all possible preliminary possibilities have been evaluated from the beginning. This is not how rational work is done in bureaucracy or political governance systems. There are many factors that can disrupt the rational flow. Habits, traditional approaches, religious approaches and influences, concerns, personal ambition, greedy people, lobbies etc. What makes the SGM system rational is that all data is entered continuously. These data are not just technical data. At the same time, data flowing from non-governmental organizations, data flowing from citizens thanks to the e-government system, requests, problems, etc. The system keeps a lively democracy alive within itself at all times. This analysis makes it possible to instantly identify conflicting requests or conflicting technical issues, thanks to the data flowing from the ever-living democracy.

Thus, the most rational solutions possible are formed thanks to the system outputs that will be formed by algorithmic methods. Another benefit of this method is that it solves future problems arising from conflicts from the current day.

Some businesses and some people may be dissatisfied with the outputs of the EOM system, since the citizens' primary objectives are to balance the benefit of society with the benefit of nature at an optimal level. For example, thermal power plant operations or those who have built settlements such as houses and hotels in the forest may not be satisfied with the relevant EOM decisions as they are damaging to this optimal balance. Because thermal power plants may be closed, settlements and businesses in forests may have to be demolished. There are so many practices in society that violate the rights of nature that it is impossible to list them one by one at the moment. But what we clearly know from a scientific point of view is that the more we disrespect the rights of nature, the more it comes back as harm to us humans. For example, a factory secretly dumps its toxic waste into a river. The river carries that waste to the sea. The river is poisoned, the seabed is poisoned. Shellfish die suddenly. Oxygenation is reduced. Small fish get sick. Big fish that eat small fish get sick. At the end of the process, we catch and eat big fish. The disease spreads to the community. etc. etc. For these reasons, continuous flow of data from every field is extremely important. In addition, ensuring the regular flow of these data is another very important issue that needs to be established.

Intra-university and inter-university hierarchy

The SGM structure rejects intra-university and inter-university hierarchy. Professors, academics, rectors and deans in all fields are at an equal level. The hierarchy system applied for the functioning of the universities does not exist in the SGM system. Its purpose is to ensure that only scientific data and scientific information are used. There is no democracy in science. No scientist decides which scientific data is correct at the sigma 6 level by voting. Or, those with a higher level of hierarchy do not have the right to talk about which data are scientific truths. It is only science (proven knowledge) that speaks. Within the framework of this logic, people take charge in SGM. The approach of one person or a group in a single university is not suitable for implementation in the SGM system. The fact that all universities reach the same scientific results on the accuracy of the same information can ensure the implementation of the relevant step.

13.06.2023 Addendum:

Economic Approach

Switching the political system to the Scientific Governance Model; It will not be enough to change the economy system without changing it. One of the most fundamental problems of the economy is the supply-demand approach. The price of a product is determined by the demand for that product. Money itself acquires a value as a result of supply and demand. However, the point on which economic theories are based is by pushing the society; It is based on forcing the individual to a point, a behavior model, using his/her selfishness. In reality, it is an increase in the profit margin without changing the production cost of the product. If the economy model is based on cost accounting; if supply - demand is completely excluded; The prices of the products become realistic. For example, when 100 people live in a village; Since the bakeries here can produce 80 breads a day, why would the demand be higher than the supply and change the production cost of the bread? If the production cost does not change; Why would the selling price increase? In case of a large number of producers, the price of the product begins to fall below the cost, and those who do not have sufficient financial means go bankrupt. It also causes unnecessary corporate warfare. The losers in the entire table from start to finish are usually consumers. The survival of producers depends on consumers consuming more and more all the time. The result of this is excessive pollution. It is climate degradation. It is the destruction of the planet. If the cost accounting system is applied in all areas, inflation will not occur. The cost need not increase unless an increase in costs occurs. Costs, however, are the depletion and non-maintenance of the relevant raw material; It depends on factors such as the implementation of new production technologies and the large amount of R&D studies that will affect the cost. It will not depend on the supply - demand of the raw material. As a result, companies that compete on price compete over the added value of the product and each excess value it offers to the consumer.

Money is a medium of exchange. It is not a product to be priced based on supply and demand. So money needs to be thought of as a unit like the meter. The meter does not lengthen or shorten from city to city or country to country. It is a unit of measurement. If money is used as a unit of measurement; currencies of all countries become equal. The exchange value does not change over time. At this point, it is necessary to answer the question of who will earn how much income in terms of employees. It is not very difficult. 1 unit of work = education time + experience + Qualifications + unit work time. With this perspective, income justice can also be achieved.

Scientific Governance Model

 

According to Max Weber, bureaucracy is a form of organization consisting of division of labor, hierarchy of authority, written rules, filing of correspondence and activities, impersonality, a disciplined structure, and official positions. In this sense, bureaucracy is a rational form of organization; technically superior to other forms of organization.

Weber identifies six characteristics of an ideal type of bureaucracy.

Fixed official duties. Administrative posts are divided into fixed offices with specific responsibilities and duties.

Authority hierarchy.

Rules system.

Technical expertise.

Career Service.

Written documents.

In Belgium, there was no government for 541 days in 2010 and 2011, and 605 days from 2018 to 2019. The world press called this situation a political crisis. But due to the settled bureaucracy and legal system, no serious problems were experienced in Belgium. Life, commerce, law and all other business continued. Nothing significant happened.

In political science, this was viewed as a demonstration of the Max Weber bureaucracy.

Then some political scientists began to express that political parties and governments were unnecessary. This point of view is still new to political science and not generally accepted, but it is interesting. In a way, the scientific governance model I put forward is a close look to the political and non-government governance model I have expressed, but it has fundamental differences.

No matter how refined Weber's bureaucracy is, it cannot reach scientific discipline. It cannot withstand bribery and lobbying pressure. If lobbying can create a crack in the bureaucratic structure, it can poison the system from there. In the model I propose, all universities in a country run the country in a matrix network structure. Continuous data is collected from the field, modeled and problems are solved before they become problems. Related disciplines, namely departments, focus on their own subjects. Law department, economics department, geography, physics, medicine, pharmacy, public finance etc. Multidisciplinary models are created on complex issues. In other words, more than one department analyzes complex problems together and produces solutions and models.

Scientific Governance Model

First of all, it is necessary to accept this important detail as a basic principle. All of the important problems are technical and it is not possible to solve these problems without scientific competence.

For this reason, the general behavior pattern of politicians follows two methods so that important problems do not change the political system they have established. Either they produce new imaginary problems that reduce the place of the problems in the society's agenda, which are usually the enemies that will create security concerns, or they approach the problems from a cosmetic point of view and act as a procrastinator. This behavior pattern causes real problems to be more complex and intractable. The main purpose of politics is to ensure the distribution of values. Taxes are collected and these taxes are distributed to the relevant areas. In the neoliberal approach, it is essential that the wealthy (industrialists and investors) pay less taxes and collect taxes from the rest of the society. The aim here is for industrialists and investors to make more investments and create job opportunities. But at the same time, this approach results in more social class separation and income inequality.

It is not my purpose here to enumerate the failures of political systems and state governance models. There are many publications on this subject. There is no single political system that is implemented as a solution for the benefit of the society and the problems. If such a political system had been developed and implemented; The deep and inextricable problems of today's world should not have existed.

Scientific Governance Model Structure

There are many universities established in a country. Universities are not the only aim of educating students. On the contrary, they are areas where scientific studies are carried out and scientific development is provided. The method of science is to explain the existing with hypothesis, observation, test, theory and evidence and to produce solution models for problems.

There are many departments in a university. Each department follows and produces a scientific discipline. The joint work of these disciplines is called the multidisciplinary approach.

If the universities in a country are organized in a matrix network structure, much stronger disciplinary perspectives are obtained. For example, if the physics departments of all universities are organized to work together and to find solutions to problems together; the speed and abilities of solving a problem together with many academicians specialized in the same subject will increase. There is not a single decision maker, a single manager, a single idea generator in this organization. However, they all work together to produce models that they can use jointly. When data is loaded into these models, it will be seen that the same results are achieved in the physics department of each university. In this case, it is understood that a clear solution has been produced for the problem studied. However, if it is determined that different results are obtained in the models in some universities, different data and the structure of the model are reviewed. It is tried to produce the most correct approach to a common and solution.

The organization and operation of all departments of all universities in the country on the same principle will be brought to an organization that can respond to all problems and needs of the society and nature at an optimal level.

I call this system the scientific governance model (SGM). It can be foreseen that all the effects and pressures that may come from the outside and inside the SGM will not reach a level that may prevent the operation of SGM due to the distributed nature of the system. These effects are bribery, lobby pressures, personal ambitions, personal greed, etc. that I have mentioned above.

It is clear that SGM will have the ability to continuously develop its own models. The secure workspace offered by a distributed model free from politics, religion, oppression and personal greed is the key to scientific progress.

Continuous and regular data is needed during the operation of SGM. Organizing students in this regard will enable them to have active experiences in their own fields and to ensure a continuous flow of data from every field. The use of Non-Governmental Organizations (NGOs) for data flow should be considered. In this way, both opinion and technical data will be collected together.

In SGM, democracy does not exist in the sense of election. Because political parties, political administration and governments do not exist. Its democratic structure ensures the continuous transfer of data and opinions from the field. The system ideally aims to solve problems with scientific modeling before they become a complete problem. However, in the event of unpredictable disruptions, it should be considered that departments such as law departments, public administration, public finance, etc. can solve the troubled sections. For this reason, no department member in any university has immunity.

Collecting taxes, regulating commercial activities, making investments, planning and implementing health services, analyzing and solving geographical problems, planning the energy need in the country and making the necessary investments, the effects of investments and trade on ecosystems, their functions on disease, etc. will have a developing governance model structure. In terms of workforce, the participation of already existing educated scientists, academicians and students continuing their education in the work of SGM makes it unnecessary to establish a government function. They can only choose among themselves to be assigned the task of representing domestically and internationally. However, this duty is given for one year and only to represent. They do not have the authority to take and implement any decision or sign. SGM itself takes decisions and implements them.

Police and army are available for internal and external security needs. However, only the police special forces and the army should be authorized to keep weapons in the country. Police and guards cannot carry firearms. They can carry a bat and an electric shock device. (The aim here is to create a peaceful society without weapons. The society itself is respectable and reliable. Honesty is contagious and shapes the structure of the society over time.) There should be no domestic sale of weapons. All previously sold weapons must be collected.

#1 It is a model that does not need selection. People do not choose anyone by choice. No politics. The public is not tried to be persuaded of anything. However, all studies, decisions, expenditures, etc. is published.

#2 It is a fluid and silent model running in the background. It solves problems and meets the needs in a balanced way, regardless of class structure. Thus, society continues its life with the least possible problems. The least trouble is the absolute and truly the least troublesome. The goal, of course, is zero problems. However, this is not scientifically possible.

#3 Dominant does not walk with a single signature so that a person or a group is not at the forefront or interests relations do not interfere with the governance. It works with the joint decision of the relevant scientific committees in the universities affiliated with the Network.

#4 There is no representation and decision-making authority in interstate relations. It only works by transmitting or collecting and transferring the decisions of SGM through representative spokespersons.

#5 As states move to the more scientific model, tensions between states naturally cease. Military expenditures are replaced by budgets spent on solving problems or on development.

#6 Continuous data collection is never terminated. Water, roads, parking, wages, price levels, legal needs, climate data.... the data belonging to each department is collected continuously and regularly and stored in a common database. In the light of these data, solution models are created and implemented.

#7 A problem can have many solutions. However, the number of solutions where one solution does not cause other problems is very limited. The most efficient will be preferred.

#8 It is aimed to increase the knowledge level of the society. Thus, while providing a better understanding and dissemination of scientific language; society becomes accustomed to scientific thinking. For example, explaining why and how to do agricultural irrigation; more valuable than imposing.

#9 The Scientific Governance Model uses scientific models precisely and strictly. Untested and unproven data is not scientific law.

#10 Many data and projects need to work multidisciplinary. The importance of the network emerges more clearly here.

#11 KPI measurement is required for those working on boards.

#12 All necessary state institutions such as Police, Hospitals, Central Bank are decided and created by SGM if the models show the need.

#13 There is no municipal system, but the needs of all cities are managed by the SGM, city services and planning departments.

#14 Supreme Court acts as an extension of SGM Legal departments. The Court of Accounts, on the other hand, continues its reporting task as an extension of the Public Administration and Audit departments.

#15 Data processing centers with high processing power will be needed to ensure the functioning of the SGM system. All universities use modeling techniques by connecting their respective departments to this computing network. As the total data content, there are data collected from the field, field analyzes of students, NGO data and demands, as well as requests and problem determinations that citizens will create from the e-government model. The data collected from the field includes the data of the institutions and the data that the analysts constantly collect from the field within the plans. For example, city data, waste data, land and sea data, settlement data, climate data, agricultural data, road data, atmosphere data, commercial data, legal data, energy use data, energy resource data, underground survey data, seafloor survey data etc. The use of data in model building is used both on the basis of university departments and in the SGM joint modeling system. Thus, it is decided by the joint scientific decision of the universities whether the modeling created as a result of the data analysis on the basis of the university will be included in the SGM. The aim here is to determine which model can produce the most efficient results by scientific methods. Some models can work with 60% accuracy. However, the model to be included in SGM is expected to reach 99% on the basis of Sigma 6.

#16 Models should seek the optimal balance between human life and natural life.

Stable and unstable aspects and risks of politics in terms of Political Science

The stable side of politics is usually the areas protected and rigidly defined in the constitution. These areas generally consist of items such as the country's regime being a republic, democracy, human rights, and the right to vote and be elected.

But at the same time, politics has functions that are unstable and carry risks. For example, once a political party is elected and a government is formed, democratic rights do not have absolute validity. The government does not consult the public on every decision it takes. Decisions taken and laws enacted without consulting the public may harm the democratic rights of individuals in society. Although the reaction of the society in this situation is usually in the democratic right class, it can be met with police barriers. For example, if the working time is increased from 8 hours to 12 hours or the retirement age is increased, the public will react. The people express through democratic actions that they do not approve of these decisions. However, the decision or the law cannot be changed. Moreover, the public may be met with police obstruction or violence. This situation can be called the risks of politics in unstable situations.

The government or parliament may take decisions limiting democratic rights out of concern for national security. For example, wiretapping, assembly bans, curfews, decisions to go to war or military action against any country. In this case, the democratic rights of the people are ignored. The society does not have the right to have a say in this decision or to intervene in these decisions.

These and similar examples can be multiplied. As a result, we can define the risks of politics as the application of unscientific methods in undemocratic ways. The existence of such practices throughout the countries contradicts the republic, individual and democratic rights in the internal definition of politics and the constitution. However, this contradiction is ignored. Decisions are made and implemented without consulting non-governmental organizations and individuals.

When we list these and similar examples one after another, in fact, all forms of political administration are authoritarian and actually undemocratic; (It would be pointless to discuss which practice uses more authoritarian and undemocratic methods. Because we can look at the details of the cases brought to against the state before the constitutional court, which usually result in loss.) We can easily notice that it lacks scientific approaches. But somehow people also choose to ignore these problems. There is usually an expression like: People are either born Christian/Muslim/Jew and right-wing, or atheist and defender of human and nature rights. Even if this statement is not entirely true, it can give an idea about human tendencies. This idea is the root cause of blindness and deafness as to why the political system is still alive.

13.06.2023 Addendum:

By looking at how the political models are understood by the society and whether they find a response; It is possible to foresee that the governance structure will not consist of political parties at the end of the century. There are many factors that cause this situation. In the income level surveys of the voters, it was found that middle and low income levels were reluctant to go to the polls. Inversely proportional to this, the amount of population in the middle and lower income level in the wealth pyramid is increasing every year. While the population forming the top of the pyramid is decreasing, the amount of income is increasing. Another factor is that societies see that their expectations from political parties and politicians do not come true over time. While not finding solutions to their problems causes them to lose their faith in politicians; In fact, it proves that the real expectation of societies is the solution to real problems. The fact that politics has become a profession; It reveals the fact that politicians work like brokers.

At this point, we need to ask the question of what is democracy and what does it do? In all known types of democratic regimes, if people do not want to vote and voting rates are decreasing, if we look at the issue since 1945, we see that almost 50% of societies have given up voting; In this case, it is necessary to question what democracy does, rather than its structure. If I have to repeat; According to the reality revealed by the reports, societies do not trust politicians. Because politicians don't solve problems. Looking in more detail; We find that politicians add to social problems. Income justice, education justice, equality between men and women, equal pay, discriminatory problems based on skin color, etc. The list is quite long.

After all, democracy is useless. The perfect work of democracy does not solve any problem. Because societies are starting to realize this simple truth. Scientists are the ones who can bring solutions to problems. Real and viable democracy is the process of conveying the problems to a center by the individuals in the society with practical communication tools, analyzing the collected problems and implementing the solutions by the scientists.

https://www.credit-suisse.com/about-us/en/reports-research/global-wealth-report.html

https://www.idea.int/sites/default/files/publications/voter-turnout-trends-around-the-world.pdf